This article presents the results of an integrated study of the current state of the natural gas market in Europe and its prospective development. It examines energy policy, demand, the competitive ability of gas suppliers, and the dynamics of external supply. It focuses especially on the impact of the European Union’s current and prospective gas market legislation, which, in effect, forms a radically different gas market architecture and changes the operating conditions for all gas suppliers, including Russia. In order to assess market stability, the article evaluates future changes in the European market using economic and mathematical optimization modelling as well as the influence of various external and internal factors on the market. It offers conclusions on the priority aspects of energy policy that apply to Russian gas exports to Europe.