Andrey Shelepov -Junior Researcher of the Global Governance Research Centreof the International Organisations Research Institute, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, PhD student of the Department for International Monetary and Financial Relationships, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, 20, Mysnitskaya, Moscow, Russia; E-mail:ashelepov@hse.ru

Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of 2012 G20 Mexican Presidency results. It is based on a model of balancing external conditions and national priorities for developing a Presidency’s proposals on its agenda in informal institutions (supply-demand model). The paper reveals to what extent the Mexican Presidency has managed to ensure: 1) a high level of response to the key global governance challenges in the agenda and summit decisions; 2) a balance between national and other members’ interests in the Presidency priorities; 3) utilizing the institution’s capabilities; 4) conformity of the role chosen by the Presidency (organizer, mediator, political leader, national representative) to the combination of external and internal conditions.

To identify the key global governance challenges, an analysis of global risks of the coming decade has been carried out, based on the annual reports of the World Economic Forum and other international institutions. An analysis of these risks relevance to ten of the G20 members, including Mexico, has also been implemented. The level of the key challenges reflection in the G20 documents and decisions in 2008-2011, and the level of reflection in the Presidency documents have been traced. The assessment was based on the correlation of the results for the significance of the key global governance challenges for the G20 members; the significance of the global governance challenges for Mexico; the level of the challenges reflection in the G20 documents and decisions in 2008-2011; and the level of the challenges reflection in the 2012 G20 summit documents and decisions. The correlation between the first three factors allows identify the Presidency role which is most suitable to address each of the challenges considered, while the level of the challenges reflection in the 2012 G20 summit documents and decisions demonstrates which role has been actually chosen.

The results of the analysis show that the roles of organizer and mediator assumed by the Mexican Presidency to develop the agenda and elaborate the G20 decisions have helped to ensure continuity of the G20 agenda and fast balance of internal demand and partner countries’ priorities on the key global governance challenges. However, on a number of issues the Presidency failed to perform the role of the leader and utilize the institution’s capabilities which could provide an opportunity for forging breakthrough decisions, and upgrading the quality of cooperation to address some of the challenges, for instance, in the economic area. This relates to the issues of growing volatility in energy and agricultural prices, income disparity and unintended negative consequences of regulation, where the need to find solutions with the highest common denominator remains.

The results of testing the model lead to the conclusion that anticipatory analysis of external and internal demand factors along with the institution’s capabilities using the supply-demand model can contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of presidencies in informal institutions.

The research was carried out with financial support of Russian Humanities Research Foundation within the framework of a research project “Elaborating a Supply – Demand Model to Balance External Demand and National Priorities in the Presidency Proposals for Agenda in G20, G8 and BRICS”, project  №12-03-00563.