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Mark Rakhmangulov

G20 Contribution to Reducing Global Imbalances (Fiscal Consolidation)

2012. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 109–119 [issue contents]

The article analyzes the G20 contribution to overcoming imbalances of the world economy by implementing the commitment on fiscal consolidation. The commitment which consists of halving state budget deficits by 2013 and stabilizing or reducing state debt ratios by 2016 was made by the advanced G20 member-countries at the Toronto summit in 2010 and reaffirmed at subsequent summits.

The analysis of the IMF data and forecasts shows that despite the fact that many countries have already started implementation of their consolidation programs, more efforts are needed in the countries with large state debts (like Italy and Japan) and huge budget deficits (United States). In the middle-term perspective the substantial increase of spending on healthcare and pension system will influence situation in all countries.

According to the IMF forecast of April 2012, six G20 developed countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Korea) are on track in implementing the commitment on fiscal consolidation. United Kingdom and United States show partial compliance (state debt component). Japan will not implement the commitment as the situation in this country aggravated after the natural and anthropogenic disaster in 2011.

The G20 commitment on fiscal consolidation with specific parameters supplemented relevant national plans with the elements of international coordination, peer pressure and influence from international organizations. But the G20, unlike the European Union, is not able to agree on the measures to stimulate compliance, including the use of sanctions. However, the G20 could promote enforcement of international organizations’ surveillance instruments with tougher indicators to assess the implementation of fiscal consolidation commitments.

The publication is prepared within the framework of a joint project “Enhancing Effectiveness of Russia’s Participation in G8, G20 and BRICS in Compliance with the Russian Federation National Priorities in Global Governance and Developing Recommendations for the Russian Presidency of G20 in 2013” implementing by Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and International Organisations Research Institute (IORI) of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” in 2012.

Citation: Rakhmangulov Mark R (2012) Vklad «Gruppy dvadtsati» v preodolenie disbalansov v mirovoy ekonomike (fiskal'naya konsolidatsiya) [G20 Contribution to Reducing Global Imbalances (Fiscal Consolidation)] INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS RESEARCH JOURNAL, 3, pp. 109-119 (in Russian)
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