Marina Larionova, Vitaly Nagornov, Mark Rakhmangulov, Andrei Shelepov
Global Risks Governance and G20, G8, BRICS Capabilities
2012. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 42–91 [issue contents]
Global governance problems generate demand for international multilateral institutions actions (demand for global governance), which can or can not be met by international institutions’ supply. Priorities of the international institutions’ member-states also shape demand for the collective actions. The institutions’ capacity for forging consensus and making collective decisions can be transformed into “global governance supply”. The country chairing an institution should align both types of demand (global risks and members positions on key global governance issues) with the capacity of the institution it chairs and its national priorities, interests and capabilities. It should also be guided by a comparative assessment of institutions’ effectiveness for dealing with specific global governance problems.
For Russia, which will be chairing G20 in 2013, G8 in 2014 and BRICS in2015, a sequence of three presidencies presents a unique opportunity to influence global processes balancing external conditions and national priorities. The sequence of presidencies provides an opportunity to elaborate an innovative agenda for the three institutions on the basis of comparative analysis of forecasted global governance challenges and G20, G8, BRICS capabilities.
The paper presents a comparative assessment of G20, G8, BRICS capabilities and their missions’ relevance to surmounting key global governance challenges of the forthcoming decade. To identify these challenges the authors used the data of two World Economic Forum reports “Global Risks2011”and “Global Risks2012”. The analysis was carried out on 5 risk categories (economic, societal, geopolitical, technological and environmental) and 25 risks with the biggest sum of impact and likelihood indicators. The assessment of the G20, G8 and BRICS capabilities draws on the analysis of the official documents content and decisions made in the summits and in other institutional formats. The comparative analysis has allowed identify the risk categories most relevant to each institution’s mission and capability. The findings were used to make recommendations for G20, G8, BRICS agendas using the supply-demand model matching global governance problems (demand) and international multilateral institutions capacity (supply).
The report “Global Risks2012”prepared by Risk Response Network has been used by courtesy of the World Economic Forum.
The publication is prepared within the framework of a joint project "Enhancing Effectiveness of Russia’s Participation in G8, G20 and BRICS in Compliance with the Russian Federation National Priorities in Global Governance and Developing Recommendations for the Russian Presidency of G20 in 2013" implementing by Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and International Organisations Research Institute (IORI) of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” in 2012.
Citation: Larionova Marina V, Nagornov Vitaly A, Rakhmangulov Mark R, Shelepov Andrei Vladimirovich (2012) Problemy upravleniya global'nymi riskami i vozmozhnosti «Gruppy dvadtsati», «Gruppy vos'mi» i BRIKS [Global Risks Governance and G20, G8, BRICS Capabilities] INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS RESEARCH JOURNAL, 3, pp. 42-91 (in Russian)