The study examines the dynamics of Chinese exports by industrial product groups in the context of global trade from 2001 to 2024. Three periods are identified, reflecting differences in the dynamics of world exports, in particular, higher growth rates in the third period (2020-2024) compared to the second period (2012-2019), which is attributed to the declining share of energy in global exports as a result of falling prices after 2010-2012. Given the uniqueness and rapid evolution of China’s foreign economic policy, several international trade theories can explain the country’s experience. The study employs the indicator "world market capacity," defined as world imports excluding China’s imports, to assess potential demand for Chinese industrial exports. An analysis of the ratio of China’s exports to "world market capacity" confirms that the country’s industrial sector has consistently responded to global market signals over the decades. This is evidenced by the growth or stability of China’s export share in "global market capacity" across most product categories. The paper also analyzes key directions of China’s industrial policy and its impact on production competitiveness relative to major trade partners, particularly the EU and the U.S., which actively impose tariff restrictions on Chinese goods. Additionally, the role of Chinese exports to the U.S. by industrial product groups is examined, along with the potential sector-specific consequences of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in 2025.

This article was submitted 17.03.2025