As global warming leads to the melting of Arctic sea ice, the economic potential and strategic importance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a new sea route connecting Asia and Europe are becoming increasingly prominent. In this context, China-Russia cooperation on the Arctic route has become a crucial component of their economic and strategic partnership. The paper basically follows the SWOT analysis model to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the current status and prospects of China-Russia economic cooperation on the Arctic route. It emphasizes the economic potential and strategic importance of the NSR due to changing Arctic ice conditions and geopolitical shifts. As an important background reference, the paper reviews the policy positions of both countries, identifying common interests and challenges. It also uses data analysis and case studies to analyze the opportunities and potential risks of cooperation. According to official shipping data, it examines the collaborative efforts between China and Russia to develop the NSR as a viable maritime corridor, emphasising that China is an indispensable force in the development of the NSR. Through detailed case studies, the paper conducts a pre-mortem analysis to identify potential risks in the cooperation, such as dependency, coercion, and cybersecurity threats. In light of the current status and prospects of cooperation between the two sides, we propose a long-term co-development strategy spanning ten to twenty years, focusing on confidence-building, joint feasibility studies, and phased execution. The goal is to establish a sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership that balances security and economic development in the Arctic. The successful cooperation between China and Russia in this region is positioned as a model for other countries with interests in the NSR, highlighting the potential for international collaboration in Arctic logistics and infrastructure development.

The publication was prepared within the framework of the XI Russian-Chinese Summer School on International Relations at HSE University. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions

This article was submitted 22.07.2024