Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s potential to contribute politically and economically to the stability of the Russia–European Union Shared Neighbourhood has been systematically undervalued. The regional integration initiated by the governments of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia has created a new institutional and ideological reality. However, the increased risk of political and economic competition with the European Union threatens to split the region into separate competing blocs, potentially limiting further regional development.

One of the negative factors is the long-term decline of the institutional tools that the EU can apply to sustain its presence in the region. As a consequence of previously used unilateral mechanisms, current European regional policy is ineffective. Because no prospects of membership can be offered to the countries in the Shared Neighbourhood, regulatory convergence with the EU depends increasingly on individual political regimes. This principle prevents a multilateral regional framework from emerging. The process is aggravated further by the increased role of irrational factors in EU regional policy, as opposed to security interests, since the mid 2000s.

However, since the beginning of Eurasian integration, the Shared Neighbourhood has entered a new phase of political and economic development, where irrational competition can only jeopardize the strategic goals of Russia and the EU. In the long term, both actors are interested in creating a coherent regional subsystem, based on multilateral formats of regional cooperation.