“Sensitive areas” in Kazakhstan–China relations: risks and policy implications
Keywords:
Kazakhstan, China,, transboundary water resources, Sinophobia, “sensitive areas”, investment, security, Belt and Road InitiativeAbstract
This article examines the key "sensitive areas" in the bilateral relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the People's Republic of China, analyzing the risks they pose to long-term bilateral and multilateral cooperation. While official discourse characterizes the partnership as "exemplary," the research indicates that several contentious issues remain latent or "frozen." Key factors, including the rise of Sinophobia, complex transboundary water management, and deepening technological and commodity dependence, are identified as primary sources of potential social and political tension.
The study further evaluates how these internal sensitivities intersect with the broader geopolitical rivalry between global powers. It specifically analyzes Kazakhstan’s utilization of middle-power agency and strategic hedging as mechanisms to mitigate the risks of asymmetric integration and external pressure. By examining concerns from both the Kazakhstani and Chinese perspectives, the findings highlight the need for a more structured, institutionalized approach to managing sensitive areas. The article contributes to the discussion on analytical understanding of risk management and the prevention of escalation within the regional international order.
This article was submitted 09.06.2025 and approved for publication 17.02.2026
doi:10.17323/1996-7845-2026-03-01
© Ruslan Izimov, Zhanerke Ospanova, Dina Kyzyrbek, 2026
Materials are distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license
